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The short holiday week tends to create a lot of disruptions for both hog processors and manufacturers. Market will return to a more normal flow in the next two weeks.
Hog slaughter remains constrained, and all indications are that slaughter in the next two weeks will remain well below year ago levels.
Lean hog futures are now trading at contract highs, not just for the nearby market but also for next spring and summer. Hog supply coming to market has been slightly lower than previously expected; however, the key driver has been the higher prices paid for pork bellies, and to a lesser extent, hams.
USDA confirms isolated case in Oregon. Pork supply remains safe; coordinated efforts continue to monitor swine health and protect herds.
NPB helped promote pork in nutritious diets and fostered future opportunities in the nutrition and retail world at this year’s Food & Nutrition Conference & Expo®.
Hog slaughter finally broke over 2.6 million head but it remains well below expectations. Supply is expected to slowly trend higher and this should help ease some of the price pressures across the complex.
NPB is excited to announce the expansion of the Advancing U.S. Pork Sustainability and Market Value grant program to support pork producers in nine additional states.
Futures have rallied the last two weeks as market participants now expect Q4 production to be less than previously thought. USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey suggested Sep-Nov slaughter could be up as much as 4% y/y. Instead slaughter since September 1 has been almost unchanged.
Our estimates are that the breeding herd on September 1 was down 2.5% from a year ago. The inventory of market hogs this fall should be adequate based on the pig crop last spring. Supply growth will be limited this winter and next spring as productivity is expected to return to trend and smaller herd limits farrowings.
When baby’s first bite includes pork, their growth and development flourishes. Pork is the perfect protein to help new parents and parents of young children make every bite count during National Family Meals Month.
Hog slaughter beat estimates at +2.3 million head, +3.6% above year ago levels. Expectations are for slaughter to ramp up in the coming weeks. Last year weekly slaughter between mid-September and early October averaged 2.57m head/wk. Given current growth trends, we could see weekly slaughter at or above 2.6 million in the coming weeks.
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